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Our prodigal son returns The big question on Sunday afternoon is how many tickets Matthew Stafford put aside for all his peeps in Highland Park. Sub-question: How many of his peeps already have season tickets?
In June, I doubt anyone looked at the Detroit-Dallas match-up on the schedule and thought, "Man, that might be a pretty good game."
I'm sure Detroit fans thought it could be a win on the road. I know Dallas fans considered it a very winnable game considering Detroit, again, rode into the season on the high wave of hype and expectations.
Three weeks in, they've met those expectations. Matthew Stafford is healthy, Calvin Johnson is Calvin Johnson, that defense has turned into a beast and, maybe most importantly, they have a little moxy. No longer are they spoiling leads in the fourth quarter. Instead, they're coming back and winning those games.
We often look at teams and say, "They just don't know how to win that game." What we are saying is that a team doesn't know what it takes during every snap until the final second to win. The Lions, we think, have reached that standard.
No one thought on Thanksgiving Day that you could have two division-contending teams hosting games. Frankly, the Green Bay-Detroit game might decide the division.
Five things:
Defense y Defense
It's easy to come here and talk up the Detroit defense. Anchored by Ndamukong Suh, they are top six in any category that counts including top three in points allowed and pass defense. However, Rob Ryan's crew isn't too shabby either. They are first in sacks and near the top in rush defense. What is frightening is that the Cowboys love to pass, the Lions don't run and the idea of the Cowboys' secondary getting exposed is very real. Also, Suh planting Tony Romo three feet deep into the turf is a distinct and scary possibility.
Cowboys' Offensive Line
By all accounts, if the O-line had a problem with Washington at home, they'll have bigger problems with Detroit at home. See: Tony Romo getting planted like a spruce on Arbor Day by Suh.
Calvin Johnson's Hands
They are big, strong and meaty. And they catch everything that comes their way. He averages 60 yards a game and two touchdowns. Although he's surely capable of controlling a game, he typically, at least this season, has been primarily a red-zone threat. You don't beat him or neutralize him. The best bet is to harrass Stafford, but, even then, he doesn't need to step into a throw to complete it Johnson. Fans are better off taking the time and enjoying arguable the best receiver in professional football.
The Haymaker
Ironically, the Cowboys have lost the one game (New York Jets) that they managed to take an early lead against. In the Washington and San Francisco games, they played from behind only to make fourth-quarter plays to win or tie. What might beat Washington and San Francisco, however, may not beat a confident Detroit team. For one, the Cowboys have never really pounded Detroit -- even when they were bad -- to begin with. Still, the Lions have played two close games (Tampa, Minnesota) and wound up staving off the Bucs and coming back big against the Vikes. No, the Lions are a different crew. Again, they know how to win those games. The Cowboys must get their licks in early and play the rest of the game as it comes along.
The Red-Zone
If Johnson is the ultimate red-zone receiver, the Dallas Cowboys are the complete opposite. The Lions, this season, are averaging 4.3 trips to the red zone and scoring on 2.7 of them per game. The Cowboys are getting one less trip per game (3.3) and scoring on only one per game. That three total red zone scores (field goals, touchdowns) in three games. Beyond the Detroit Lions, the Cowboys will need to change that trend. They will not win eight games with that average. They might not win six.
Prediction
Detroit Lions 30, Dallas Cowboys 17
I leaned toward Dallas early until I realized the amount of injuries the Cowboys have and how that plays directly into the hands of Detroit's strengths. Did you know the Lions have the best turnover differential in the league at +6? Stafford playing in his hometown. As improbable as the Lions are at 4-0, I think it's even more improbable the Cowboys are 3-1.
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