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We're baaaaccckkkkk I also don't think you can take any team in the Majors lightly. If you've made the MLB playoffs, then you are a team to reckon with, you are good.
The Rays -- pockmarks and all -- can win this ALDS. They can also just as easily lose it.
The line-ups are out, the rosters set and the pitching match-ups made. It's time to really think about this thing, and then play it.
Five things that will matter:
Coaching
It's already started. Last year, Joe Maddon took heat for some questionable coaching moves, primarily set around his starting pitching choices. For game 1, Maddon's already tabbed Matt Moore to take the mound. The same Matt Moore that's failed to pitch 10 innings in the Majors. Ron Washington countered with starting Craig Gentry ... in left field and Josh Hamilton in center. Questionable moves that could pay off (Washington's had a ton of them this year) or bite them in the ass.
Matt Moore
Speaking of, a risky move by Maddon. Moore's an exciting prospect and he'll make Tampa great ... next year and beyond. Moore made noise with his promotion in September. He made one start against Boston and struck out 11 in five innings. However, he also allowed nine hits in nine innings and had trouble with righties, something the Rangers have a lot of.
Or, he goes out, goes seven scoreless and Maddon is a genius.
Control
The Rays are bad offensively. They are near the bottom in the Majors in average (.244) and are in the middle in runs scored (707). However, they do two things well: Work walks and steal bases. They were third in the league in walks (571) and second in steals (155). I think the Rays are an easy out if you throw strikes, force those hitters to drive the ball and keep them, generally, off the bases. For the record, the Rangers allowed the sixth least stolen bases and caught 35 percent of base stealers, good for third in the league.
Derek Holland
Outside of Matt Moore, is there a bigger wild card? The last impression of post-season Dutchie is him walking the entire San Francisco franchise. There's no doubt he's turned a corner this season and thoroughly deserves the game 2 start. However, there will be 90,000 sets of white knuckles when he takes the mound.
Home
The big difference (or a difference ... I would bet Cliff Lee matters) from last year to this is the swap of home-field advantage. The Rangers aren't good at home. They are stupendous at home. They tied for second in home wins (52 ... only Milwaukee had more). They're numbers at the Ballpark: .296/.353/.508. Opponents' numbers at home: .256/.315/.422. Not only can they hit there, they can pitch there. Rangers must make home-field stand up. Maybe those 50K in the stands will help.
Prediction
Rangers in four
I hate that the Rangers are the favorite here. The Rays, above all, are tenacious. The last thing you want is to make them think they aren't good enough. I also hate that some are picking the Rangers to win the pennant. Hopefully their noses are out of the newspapers. They need to continue to think they're the underdog, the team no one respects.
I do think the Rangers have too much. Home field with that line-up and enough pitching to get you through. It will not be easy, no matter what.
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