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Predicting Major League Baseball. NL Central
NL West
Philadelphia Phillies -- 94-68
I don't think their gaudy 102-60 was more of a product of their mediocre division than the Phillies' dominance. Once they got into the playoffs, it showed. Despite their top three starters, I don't see how they can A) maintain that pace of 2011 and/or B) continue to beat teams in the NL East that might be improving. The top three guys are fantastic. The bottom two (Vance Worley, Joe Blanton) do not evoke the greatest amount of confidence, although Worley certainly is not a bump on a log. Their biggest problem is the offense. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard haven't been right in years more or less all at the same time and it looks no better for 2012. Looks like a team that could struggle to score runs.
As for Roy Halladay, he is primed to advance his individual career by eclipsing 200 wins and 2,000 strikeouts this season. He turns 35 this year and hasn't had a major injury since 2005, back when we thought he was a bit injury-prone. What is his ceiling? Is he too smart to get hurt? Are we witnessing the greatest pitcher since 1980?
Atlanta Braves -- 91-71
Hmm. How fast can that starting rotation grow up? Can it stay healthy? Tim Hudson will not start the season in the rotation, and although he will return this season, the Braves will need to count on a relatively unproven rotation to buoy this thing. I don't think the offense or bullpen will be an issue. And for all I know, the rotation could be fantastic. The potential certainly is there. Get the feeling that if the Braves are there in July, they'll add a top-tier, veteran arm along the way. Unfortunately for the Braves, if this division turns into a three- or four-team battle, I think they stand the most to lose. I don't think they get more than 91 or 92 wins, but they could dip to 85 or so. The Marlins and Nationals I think have the most ability to jump up.
Miami Marlins -- 87-75
"Miami Marlins" sounds so good off the tongue that you have to wonder what they were thinking before they made the switch. The Marlins will get good this year. I think the biggest difference is Ozzie Guillen at skipper. The Chicago White Sox were not always good. But I never got the feeling they were ever scared of anyone. I think players like to play for him. The offense should be the best in the division if not the National League by adding Jose Reyes and Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton entering his second full season. The rotation essentially added Josh Johnson (missed basically all of last season), Mark Buehrle (salty vet) and Carlos Zambrano (change of scenery). And Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco are no chumps. On paper, this might be the team that the Phillies needs to worry about the most.
Washington Nationals -- 77-85
I don't know if folks talked enough about the Nats last year. Their marquee free agent grab (Jayson Werth) tanked and they still got exponentially better. A team with an upside. Some kids still figuring things out on the fly. Added Brad Lidge for the bullpen and Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez (watch out!) for the rotation. Win or lose, the stories here will be Bryce Harper's eventually ascension to the Majors and Stephen Strasburg's comeback year. I don't think the Nats fall anywhere below 77 wins, but I think they could jump well into the 80s making it a potentially insane race.
New York Mets -- 65-97
Twofold here: The division is getting better and the Mets might be getting worse. The offense is a bunch of no-names and underachievers (David Wright, Jason Bay) mixed with a extremely risky starting rotation (Johan Santana's comeback, R.A. Dickey's knuckle) and a poor bullpen (second-worst bullpen ERA in National League in 2011). Might be lucky to get 65 wins.
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